Perhaps the most complex risk for organizations is terrorism. Terrorist attacks, high-profile kidnappings, political insurgencies and extortion threats formerly tended to target business operations in emerging or unstable environments. Today those risks must be a concern for organizations everywhere.

Extremist groups are global and aim to do the kind of damage that causes a worldwide media frenzy. And organizations don't even have to be targeted to be directly impacted. An attack nearby can result in human casualties, property damage, business interruption, liability issues and relocation costs.

As terrorist attacks are increasingly considered foreseeable events, local and global organizations should quantify their liability exposure to ensure they have adequate, auditable procedures in place in order to mitigate the risk. The best mitigation strategies center on information gathering. Four key preliminary measures are recommended:

1.) Organizations need to quantify their risk in each operating territory of the world by by assessing threat and vulnerability, and by reviewing the intent and capability of extremists working in those regions.

2.) In line with corporate governance, businesses have a responsibility to ensure that staff, clients and visitors are aware of and prepared for the risks they face.

3.) The exposure a company faces can be greatly reduced by putting measures in place such as physical barriers and a heightened security presence at key areas and times.

4.) Organizations should have robust crisis management plans that enable them to react to an incident in a timely and coordinated fashion, ensuring public confidence and share-price stability.

Terrorism Risk Management—Good News and Bad News

The good news: International counterterrorism efforts appear to be stifling the ability of terrorist groups to mount significant attacks on the scale of those of 9/11, according to Aon's 2010 Terrorism Threat Map.

According to the analysis, al-Qaeda in particular is being forced to focus on building its networks in traditional conflict zones. Concerns remain, however, about such networks and followers in Europe and North America, as well as the reemergence of more traditional left, right and nationalist terrorist groups. And, despite an apparent slight downward trend in attacks in recent months, sustained insurgencies continue to provide the focal points for terrorism within Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Somalia and Yemen.

This year, much has been learned about cells and individuals operating inside certain borders. Constant military pressure in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq has forced al-Qaeda to rely on less capable operatives. "As pressure is exerted on jihadist groups in their preferred territories, they are likely to seek new homes and affiliations in countries that have limited capacity to deal with them. We expect to continue to see significant presence from terrorist groups in northern and eastern Africa, including Algeria, Mali and Somalia, as well as in Yemen," says Paul Bassett, CEO, Aon Risk Solutions, Crisis Management.

The 2010 Terrorism Threat Map reveals that new fronts in terrorism activities are not the only issues governments and corporations need to take into account when ensuring their citizens and employees remain safe. "2009 and 2010 have been years of tactical innovation for terrorist groups. In late 2009, we saw two attempts to carry out underwear bombings, a recent innovation intended to subvert airport-style security measures," Bassett says. "Also of note is the trend that an increasing number of suicide bombers do not fit the expected profile."

Connect the dots

The 2010 Threat Map and Report, produced by Aon in collaboration with security consultancy firm Janusian, represents a contemporary snapshot of the violent potential of terrorist groups operating in more than 200 countries. Each country is assigned a threat level, starting at Low, and rising through Guarded, Elevated, High and Severe.

Threat levels are determined by scoring each country based on the following threat indicators for 2010: