Benjamin Franklin memorably stated that the only certain things in life are death and taxes. If he were alive today, he might add risk as the third great certainty. In the midst of the far-reaching changes that surround us, the presence of risk and the need to deal with it are just as inescapable.

Technology, particularly communications technology, has always been seen as a key source and catalyst of change, and the spread of the Internet and mobile connectivity is indeed influencing lives across the world. The biggest impact may actually not be in providing developed markets with luxuries such as the ability to download movies on demand, but in simply connecting people in the developing world at a pace not possible before as mobile technology leapfrogs the wired infrastructure. New technologies have brought instant worldwide communication, which has triggered social change, and as a result we are facing the prospect of that change being faster and more global than ever before.

But those technological changes pale beside some of the other effects that we are seeing. The awakening of China, the opening of its markets and the resultant surge in demand for raw materials has transformed the world economy. The new superpower is changing quickly, moving beyond being just a cheap source of manufactured goods to establish itself as a global force in research and development as well.

The demand for commodities from fast-developing economies like China has triggered a further change, with the surging oil price affecting industries and consumers around the world. Oil markets are notoriously volatile, but with even the most bearish forecasters predicting prices that would have been thought sky high just a few years ago, it looks as if we may have entered an era of high energy costs rather than just experiencing a short-term energy shock.

The revenues flowing from those high-energy prices are transforming the Middle East, as our cover story in this issue of One demonstrates. But more expensive energy is also transforming whole industries and our environment, as alternative, greener energy sources become both politically desirable and economically viable. The development of such energy sources presents further implications, with suggestions that the growth in biofuel production is partly to blame for surging food prices.

Environmental changes may bring the biggest risk of all: the threat to current ways of life around the world and potentially devastating climate changes. The availability of water, perhaps the most basic commodity of them all, is not something that a large proportion of the world's population can take for granted. Efforts to improve the situation are being undermined by the steady pollution of water sources around the globe, and the first cross-border conflicts over water are already occurring.

Against that background, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis and resultant credit crunch might appear to be minor blips on the radar. Although the reputations and share prices of some leading financial institutions have been hammered, surely in the long term some form of normality will return. Yet here too, there are signs of long-term changes. Weakened balance sheets are being restored in part by investments from sovereign wealth funds, with the Middle East and China both featuring prominently. The sums involved may be relatively small, but the symbolic significance should not be overlooked.

Bring all these aspects together and we may be facing, if not a perfect storm, then at least a powerful one. Attitudes toward managing risk will have to change if we are to navigate our way through it.

Above all, we need to look at risk systemically, elevating it to a strategic discussion rather than addressing individual issues at a tactical level. It is the interrelationships among the many changes that surround us that present the true challenge, and organizations must look at the risks both within and outside their operations to formulate strategies that will help them achieve long-term success.